Growth in dairy cow numbers has been the major factor driving reduced breeding ewe numbers and lowered lamb and mutton export production for 2009-10, says Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s Economic Service Executive Director, Rob Davison.
Davison says for the year ended 30 June 2009, Statistics New Zealand official breeding ewe numbers were 2.2% (480,000 head) lower than previously estimated, and the number of dairy cows was 3.1% (140,000 head) higher than expected.
“Almost 70% of the decrease in breeding ewe numbers and almost all (96%) of the dairy cow increase occurred in the South Island.
“The flow on effect of this and other factors has been the 5.5% drop in export lambs slaughtered to mid June 2010 (-1.0 million)."
It is now estimated the 2009-10 export lamb slaughter for the year ending 30 September 2010 will drop 4.5% from last year to 21.5 million head. This is 2 million less than the December 2009 forecast.
The export mutton slaughter is expected to be virtually unchanged from the December 2009 forecast, and drops an estimated 10.1 per cent to 3.6 million head on last year.
Davison says the export beef slaughter is estimated to decrease 3.9% to 2.25 million head, virtually the same as the December 2009 forecast.
“For cattle the decrease reflects a high slaughter in 2008-09 due to the increased turn-off of cull dairy cows. The decline in beef breeding cows in 2007 and 2008 also limits the number of prime cattle available this year. However, we expect some rebuilding of cattle herds in the previously drought affected regions.”
Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s Economic Service survey of stock numbers on hand at 30 June is currently underway and due for completion on 22 July. Livestock on hand in mid winter form the productive base for the 2010-11 production outlook.