Sheep numbers will be down 4.3 million (-11%) this year to 34.2 million, says Meat & Wool New Zealand's Economic Service.
The most significant effect on numbers is drought and dairy expansion.
Economic Service Executive Director, Rob Davison says the largest decline in sheep numbers is in the South Island where there are 3.0 million less sheep (-15%). North Island sheep numbers are down 1.3 million (-7%).
“The drought has forced the slaughter of extra capital stock and accounts for 60 per cent of the decrease in stock numbers while the dairy expansion accounts for the other 40 per cent. Included in the dairy expansion is the increase in dairy support stock that are reared on sheep and beef farms and which have also displaced sheep and beef cattle.
A global demand for dairy products, high prices adn dairy herd expansion has been significant, alongside poor export lamb prices, says Davison.
Further compounding the situation is an increase in cash cropping at the expense of sheep numbers. This is because crop prices have increased 50 per cent or more due to international price trends. As a result farms with arable land have increased their crop areas rather than restocking with sheep.
“For the year ending 30 September 2008, the estimated lamb slaughter at 26.4 million head is similar to the previous season, but it was boosted to that level by the drought slaughter. It included ewe lambs that would normally have been kept as replacements. There were also extra lambs slaughtered due to the expansion of the dairy herd onto sheep and beef land.”
Davison said this year’s adult sheep slaughter is up 31% on the previous year – the highest since 1988-89 - a year that was also severely affected by drought.
The high slaughter and dairy expansion impacts will mean a significant fall in the lamb and sheep slaughter next season.
“We expect export lamb slaughter to be down 6 million (-23%) to 20.3 million lambs. The North Island lamb slaughter will be down 3 million (-26% to 8.4 million and the South Island lamb slaughter will fall 3 million (-20%) to 11.9 million.
“The export sheep slaughter will be down 3.3 million (-53%) to 2.9 million. In the North Island the slaughter will fall 1.1 million (-40%) and the South Island export sheep slaughter will fall 2.1 million (-65% to 1.2 million.”
Davison says over 300 new dairy farms started this spring and that had lifted total dairy cattle numbers 6.1% up to 5.6 million. The South Island herd increased an estimated 170,000 (+10.4%) which was up 1.8 million. The North Island herd increased 150,000 head (+4.2%) to 3.8 million. These increases include the dairy support animals that are grazed on sheep and beef farms.
The dairy herd expansion is expected to continue, but at a slower rate in 2009, he said.
Meantime, Mr Davison said beef cattle numbers had decreased and were down 3.2% to 4.25 million this year. The decrease was made up from a 3% fall in the North Island and a 4% fall in the South Island.
“Recovery from the drought is expected to be slow as the sheep and beef sector adjusts to there being less finishing land due to dairy conversion. There is also the challenge presented by significantly higher global fertiliser prices.
“We do expect though as the drought recovery occurs, lambing percentages will be better in 2009 and this will see a 10% lift in export lamb production to 22.3 million in the 2009/10 year.“
Meat & Wool New Zealand’s 2008/09 Stock Number Report can be downloaded from the website www.meatandwoolnz.com