In the NZ primary sector, making big decisions and, at times, multiple conflicting big decisions, holds the key to navigating the ever-changing agricultural landscape
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Stephen McNally
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There has been plenty of policy and commentary placing our farmers and growers at major crossroads, contemplating a shift from irrigated pasture-based systems to irrigated intensive horticulture, often predicated on this achieving an improvement in emissions and also discussion of other diversification options.
Setting that assumption aside for another time, decisions by some are being made at quite a rapid pace, while others are bogged down at the start line. It’s not as simple as just a change in growing one plant to another; it’s a strategic move requiring a careful examination of many, many factors.
Establishing your decision criteria early on provides a solid foundation for navigating the decision-making process. Align these criteria with your values and priorities, ensuring they reflect what truly matters to you. Continuously assess your decisions against these criteria as you gather information, actively targeting any information gaps to comprehensively explore all aspects and undertake a thorough information-gathering mission. Understanding the capacity of the land, the intricacies of water resource availability, and the potential of the region to adopt a post-farm gate supply chain becomes crucial. In this scenario, the reliability of irrigation, once catering to growing grass, is to sustain a high-value horticultural crop. The decision to make such a transition brings to the kitchen table the juggle of uncertainties you’re familiar with as a farmer and the challenges associated with embracing a somewhat new set of variables as a grower.
Maintaining a commitment to your established decision criteria is needed while resisting the temptation to compromise or bend them to fit a preconceived notion or arriving at a decision in the cold dawn you’re uncomfortable with. You must be open to discovering new ideas along the way while remaining true to your principles.
Your confidence level in irrigation water supply inevitably emerges as a linchpin for decision-making; horticulture often requires a higher reliability standard than encountered in pasture-based systems.
The landowner, now contemplating the water needs of horticultural crops, must assess the effectiveness of irrigation systems, the historical availability of water resources, and the adaptability of current infrastructure to meet the future demands of intensive horticulture under a climate change model. Very quickly, it becomes apparent that water storage infrastructure to underpin supply reliability is a new factor to introduce to the land use change decision and your investment.
Climate change assumes a prominent role in this decision-making narrative. New Zealand’s susceptibility to changing weather patterns is of importance for climate-smart agricultural practices. The landowner, now contemplating a shift to horticulture, must integrate adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on crop yields.
Timeframes to implement change are critical considerations in good decision-making. The original farming operation may have yielded consistent albeit fluctuating seasonal returns. However, intensive horticulture requires a nuanced understanding of a business model sometimes impacted by a single annual harvest versus the long-term land use gains. The landowner must be ready to navigate the tension between the urgency of adapting to market trends and the patience required for the establishment and maturation of horticultural crops possibly without achieving positive cash flow for several seasons. Affordability and the need for financial restructuring will inject further complexity into the decision-making process.
Shifting to horticultural-based growing is just an example of many of the change decisions farmers and growers are faced with, and in part two (next issue), we will look more broadly at embracing the opportunities of change.
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